In the second half of the 21st century, the demographers foresee a decline of the Asian population to less than 5 billion by 2100.By switching to the map view you can explore the projection of the distribution of the global population.http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0959378014001095By the end of the century, more than 8 out of every 10 people in the world will live in Asia or Africa.From 2015 onwards it shows the UN Population Projections.We already know that the future population will be better educated than today’s population because in the vast majority of countries the younger cohorts are much better educated than the older cohorts.There are reasons to be optimistic that Africa could develop faster than the projections of the UN assume:There are a range of projections for future population growth. "Haub (1995): "The average annual rate of growth was actually lower from 1 A.D. to 1650 than the rate suggested above for the 8000 B.C. doi: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2014.06.004. For every child younger than 15 there were 1.8 people in working-age (15 to 64) in 1950; today there are 2.5; and by the end of the century there will be 3.4.Future projections will continue to be refined over time. In the past, Whether the world population will reach 10 billion will likely depend on AfricaFollowing decades of very fast population growth, there is often concern that population growth is out-of-control: that an end to growth is not in sight.Comparison of world population projectionsAt the global level population growth is determined by the number of births and deaths.http://www.unfpa.org/demographic-dividendThe global average fertility rate was 5 children per woman until the end of the 1960s and has halved since then.Global demand for education: Global population younger than 15 until 2100, according to Wittgenstein Centre's SSP2 CERNorth, Central and South America, and Oceania, are projected to also see a rise in population this century – but this growth will be much more modest relative to growth in Africa. By the end of the century – when global population growth will have fallen to 0.1% according to the UN’s projection – the world will be very close to the end of the demographic transition. Nature, 387(6635), 803–805.
Kielman (2001) looked at how UN projections from 1950 to 1995 matched with the actual population figures.Now let us compare this with the projection of the world population by world region according to the medium projection of WC-IIASA – the SSP2 scenario with the GET assumption on global educational improvements.This visualization is adapted from Wolfgang Lutz, William P. Butz, and Samir KC Projections of the global population younger than 15, by education scenarioAs we have seen above, the crucial variable for how the world population will evolve is the total fertility rate: the number of children per woman. Every five years since the 1970s, the population growth rate has continued to fall. In 2015, the global population was estimated to be 7.4 billion; the 1990 Revision overestimated with a projection of 7.7 billion whilst the 1998 Revision underestimated at 7.2 billion.Until 1950 the fertility rate in the ‘more developed regions’ had already declined to less than 3 children per woman. Changes to the population size of the Americas, Oceania, and Europe are very small compared to the large expected changes in Asia and Africa. 1–13. The demographers expect the African population to stay well below 3 billion, with population growth almost coming to a halt at the end of this century.This article was first published in 2014.
The big global demographic transition that the world entered more than two centuries ago is then coming to an end: This new equilibrium is different from the one in the past when it was the very high mortality that kept population growth in check. One reason for this abnormally slow growth was the Black Plague.
In the new balance it will be low fertility keeps population changes small.Still, living conditions in most parts of the African continent are very poor and it would be too early to say that the changes that we are seeing now are foreshadowing the improvements which will lower fertility rates more rapidly. This dreaded scourge was not limited to 14th century Europe.
You find our research on this link On this see also Wolfgang Fengler (2015) – Will the world reach 10 billion people?
What does this mean for population growth?https://global.oup.com/academic/product/world-population-and-human-capital-in-the-twenty-first-century-9780198703167?cc=us&lang=en&This is described in Samir KC and Wolfgang Lutz (2017) – The human core of the shared socioeconomic pathways: Population scenarios by age, sex and level of education for all countries to 2100. The middle scenario by WC-IIASA for the educational structure of the world population is shown in this chart here.In 1950 there were 2.5 billion people on the planet. While other projections are only structuring the demographic data by sex and age-group, the WC-IIASA data is additionally breaking down the population data by the level of highest educational attainment of different parts of the population. One estimate of the population of the Roman Empire, from Spain to Asia Minor, in 14 A.D. is 45 million. What is responsible for the increase of the world population from now on is not a widening of the the base, but a fill up of the population above the base.
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